Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and generalization. Recent causal learning approaches address these issues by integrating domain knowledge, yet they typically rely on fixed causal graphs that fail to adapt to data. We propose CauStream, a unified framework for causal spatiotemporal streamflow forecasting. CauSTream jointly learns (i) a runoff causal graph among meteorological forcings and (ii) a routing graph capturing dynamic dependencies across stations. We further establish identifiability conditions for these causal structures under a nonparametric setting. We evaluate CauSTream on three major U.S. river basins across three forecasting horizons. The model consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, with performance gaps widening at longer forecast windows, indicating stronger generalization to unseen conditions. Beyond forecasting, CauSTream also learns causal graphs that capture relationships among hydrological factors and stations. The inferred structures align closely with established domain knowledge, offering interpretable insights into watershed dynamics. CauSTream offers a principled foundation for causal spatiotemporal modeling, with the potential to extend to a wide range of scientific and environmental applications.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often struggle in preserving high-frequency components of nodal signals when dealing with directed graphs. Such components are crucial for modeling flow dynamics, without which a traditional GNN tends to treat a graph with forward and reverse topologies equal.To make GNNs sensitive to those high-frequency components thereby being capable to capture detailed topological differences, this paper proposes a novel framework that combines 1) explicit difference matrices that model directional gradients and 2) implicit physical constraints that enforce messages passing within GNNs to be consistent with natural laws. Evaluations on two real-world directed graph data, namely, water flux network and urban traffic flow network, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal.

We investigate the problem of stochastic network design in bidirected trees. In this problem, an underlying phenomenon (e.g., a behavior, rumor, or disease) starts at multiple sources in a tree and spreads in both directions along its edges. Actions can be taken to increase the probability of propagation on edges, and the goal is to maximize the total amount of spread away from all sources. Our main result is a rounded dynamic programming approach that leads to a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), that is, an algorithm that can find (1 ɛ)-optimal solutions for any problem instance in time polynomial in the input size and 1/ɛ. Our algorithm outperforms competing approaches on a motivating problem from computational sustainability to remove barriers in river networks to restore the health of aquatic ecosystems.

Spatially embedded networks (SENs) represent a special type of complex graph, whose topologies are constrained by the networks' embedded spatial environments. The graph representation of such networks is thereby influenced by the embedded spatial features of both nodes and edges. Accurate network representation of the graph structure and graph features is a fundamental task for various graph-related tasks. In this study, a Generic Multimodal Spatially Graph Convolutional Network (GMu-SGCN) is developed for efficient representation of spatially embedded networks. The developed GMu-SGCN model has the ability to learn the node connection pattern via multimodal node and edge features. In order to evaluate the developed model, a river network dataset and a power network dataset have been used as test beds. The river network represents the naturally developed SENs, whereas the power network represents a man-made network. Both types of networks are heavily constrained by the spatial environments and uncertainties from nature. Comprehensive evaluation analysis shows the developed GMu-SGCN can improve accuracy of the edge existence prediction task by 37.1\% compared to a GraphSAGE model which only considers the node's position feature in a power network test bed. Our model demonstrates the importance of considering the multidimensional spatial feature for spatially embedded network representation.

We investigate the problem of stochastic network design in bidirected trees. In this problem, an underlying phenomenon (e.g., a behavior, rumor, or disease) starts at multiple sources in a tree and spreads in both directions along its edges. Actions can be taken to increase the probability of propagation on edges, and the goal is to maximize the total amount of spread away from all sources. Our main result is a rounded dynamic programming approach that leads to a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), that is, an algorithm that can find (1 ɛ)-optimal solutions for any problem instance in time polynomial in the input size and 1/ɛ. Our algorithm outperforms competing approaches on a motivating problem from computational sustainability to remove barriers in river networks to restore the health of aquatic ecosystems.

Water is the lifeblood of river networks, and its quality plays a crucial role in sustaining both aquatic ecosystems and human societies. Real-time monitoring of water quality is increasingly reliant on in-situ sensor technology. Anomaly detection is crucial for identifying erroneous patterns in sensor data, but can be a challenging task due to the complexity and variability of the data, even under normal conditions. This paper presents a solution to the challenging task of anomaly detection for river network sensor data, which is essential for accurate and continuous monitoring. We use a graph neural network model, the recently proposed Graph Deviation Network (GDN), which employs graph attention-based forecasting to capture the complex spatio-temporal relationships between sensors. We propose an alternate anomaly scoring method, GDN+, based on the learned graph. To evaluate the model's efficacy, we introduce new benchmarking simulation experiments with highly-sophisticated dependency structures and subsequence anomalies of various types. We further examine the strengths and weaknesses of this baseline approach, GDN, in comparison to other benchmarking methods on complex real-world river network data. Findings suggest that GDN+ outperforms the baseline approach in high-dimensional data, while also providing improved interpretability. We also introduce software called gnnad.

Causal inference for extremes has only be considered during the past few years. That observations of climate extremes such as floods, hurricanes, and droughts, but also man-made catastrophes like industry fire, terrorist attacks, or crashes of financial markets have been in the focus of research is convincingly documented in the journal Extremes. On the other hand, it is a fundamental problem to assess causality of risks. Often rare events are interconnected; for example, floods disseminate through a river network, and credit markets might fail due to some endogenous systemic risk propagation. Hence, it is necessary to not only understand dependencies between rare events, but also their causal structure.

Stochastic network design is a general framework for optimizing network connectivity. It has several applications in computational sustainability including spatial conservation planning, pre-disaster network preparation, and river network optimization. A common assumption in previous work has been made that network parameters (e.g., probability of species colonization) are precisely known, which is unrealistic in real- world settings. We therefore address the robust river network design problem where the goal is to optimize river connectivity for fish movement by removing barriers. We assume that fish passability probabilities are known only imprecisely, but are within some interval bounds. We then develop a planning approach that computes the policies with either high robust ratio or low regret. Empirically, our approach scales well to large river networks. We also provide insights into the solutions generated by our robust approach, which has significantly higher robust ratio than the baseline solution with mean parameter estimates.

I study the problems of optimizing a range of stochastic processes occurring in networks, such as the information spreading process in a social network, species migration processes in landscape network, virus spreading process in human contact network. The standard network design frameworks, such as Steiner tree problem and survival network design problem, fail to capture certain properties of these problems. To solve the problems, the existing techniques, such as standard mixed integer program solver, greedy algorithms or heuristic based methods, also suffer from limited scalability or poor performance. My thesis contributes to both modeling and algorithm development. My first goal is to define a unifying network design framework called stochastic network design (SND) to model a broad class of network design problems under stochasticity. My second goal, which is my major focus, is to design effective and scalable general-purpose approximate algorithms to solve problems that can be formulated by the SND framework.

We investigate the problem of stochastic network design in bidirected trees. In this problem, an underlying phenomenon (e.g., a behavior, rumor, or disease) starts at multiple sources in a tree and spreads in both directions along its edges. Actions can be taken to increase the probability of propagation on edges, and the goal is to maximize the total amount of spread away from all sources. Our main result is a rounded dynamic programming approach that leads to a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), that is, an algorithm that can find (1 ɛ)-optimal solutions for any problem instance in time polynomial in the input size and 1/ɛ. Our algorithm outperforms competing approaches on a motivating problem from computational sustainability to remove barriers in river networks to restore the health of aquatic ecosystems.